Millions of people have been displaced by the conflict in Myanmar, living in refugee camps. csi
Myanmar’s military government is making desperate attempts to seek international legitimacy while committing crimes against humanity that include mass killings, airstrikes on schools and places of worship, arbitrary arrests, torture and deliberate blocking of humanitarian aid.
The generals have hired a United States lobbying firm and are preparing to hold elections widely regarded as a sham. Success in this plan would allow them to tighten their grip on power, escape accountability for atrocities committed and further endanger millions of civilians, including Christian communities trapped in active conflict zones.
On July 31, Myanmar’s Ministry of Information signed a contract worth three million U.S. dollars a year with the Washington lobbying firm DCI Group, registered under the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act. The deal is aimed at rebuilding relations with the United States while making no commitment to end atrocities against civilians or pursue democratic reforms.
Top general retains power
It came on the same day the junta announced a civilian-led interim government ahead of elections scheduled for December 2025 and January 2026. However, Min Aung Hlaing, who led the February 2021 coup, kept his roles as acting president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, ensuring that all key levers of power remain in his grip.
The junta also canceled the nationwide state of emergency that had been in place since the coup, doing so solely because the military-drafted 2008 constitution requires it to be lifted before elections can be held.
Hours later, the generals reimposed emergency rule and declared martial law in dozens of townships under opposition control or influence. These include areas where holding any meaningful election is impossible due to ongoing fighting. In 2024, the military failed to complete a full national census, counting 32 million people in accessible areas and estimating another 19 million in conflict zones beyond its reach.
Widespread conflict
Conflict in Myanmar has deep roots. Ethnic armed organizations have been fighting the central state for decades, controlling territory in border areas and seeking autonomy or self-determination. The 2021 coup triggered a nationwide war by bringing newly formed pro-democracy resistance groups into alliance with longstanding ethnic armed forces. Fighting now stretches across most of the country.
The Special Advisory Council on Myanmar (SAC-M) estimates the junta controls only about 14 percent of territory. The SAC-M is an independent group of international experts and former high-level United Nations officials who monitor and report on the situation in Myanmar after the 2021 coup. Most of the country is either in the hands of resistance groups or remains contested in ongoing battles. According to the United Nations, about 43 percent of Myanmar’s population lives in areas affected by active conflict.
The junta’s strongest positions are in major urban centers such as the tiny capital city of Naypyidaw, the cultural center of Yangon, and parts of the commercial hub Mandalay, along with portions of central regions including Magway and southern Sagaing, where a devastating 7.7‑magnitude earthquake struck in March.
Christian communities heavily affected
The 2014 census recorded 555,037 Christians in Kachin State in the far north bordering China, 408,730 in Chin State along the western frontier with India and Bangladesh, 131,237 in Kayah State in the east along the border with Thailand, and 569,389 in Shan State in the north east bordering China, Laos, and Thailand, totaling about 1.66 million.
These four states account for 52 percent of the national Christian population. They contain many active war zones. Between 30 and 50 percent of all Christians in Myanmar are likely living in areas where airstrikes, artillery bombardments and ground assaults occur regularly, and where humanitarian aid is blocked.
High human cost
On August 1, 2025, a drone strike by the junta killed at least 10 civilians in Za Yat Seik village in Palaw Township in Tanintharyi Region, a coastal area in the far south that has small Christian communities among its predominantly Buddhist population. In May, an airstrike hit Kanna Yeiktha Monastery in Bhamo, a town in Kachin State in the far north bordering China that has a large Christian population, killing at least 15 people who had taken shelter there. The same month, a military aircraft bombed a school in Tabayin Township in Sagaing Region in central Myanmar, where Christian communities are present in smaller numbers, killing up to 22 people, most of them children and teachers.
Then on August 8, Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) reported that the junta had carried out 31 attacks on hospitals and clinics across eight states and regions over the preceding four months, from April through July.
The human cost since the coup is staggering. The non-profit Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reports more than 29,410 arrests for political reasons, with around 21,937 people still detained. Civilian deaths are estimated between 6,000 and 6,400, including hundreds of children and women. These numbers likely understate the real toll because of limited access to many conflict areas.
Rare earths a bargaining chip
Alongside its political and military maneuvers, the junta is seeking leverage through control of valuable natural resources.
One of its most significant assets is rare earth minerals – a group of 17 metals essential for high-technology manufacturing, including electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, smartphones, precision-guided missiles and fighter jets. Myanmar is the world’s third-largest producer, and most of its output goes to China, which dominates the global processing of these minerals.
The generals see rare earths as a bargaining chip to attract interest from Washington, especially after the Trump administration lifted sanctions on some military-linked individuals and companies in July. This move, condemned by the UN Special Rapporteur for Myanmar and suspected of being aimed at diverting Myanmar’s vast supplies of rare earth minerals away from strategic rival China, appears to have signaled to the junta that opportunities for engagement may be emerging.
Junta seeks legitimacy
This combination of lobbying contracts, staged political reforms, promised elections and economic bargaining tools is designed to present the military as a partner ready to rejoin the international community. In reality, the junta faces a shrinking territorial base, an extensive record of atrocities and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Governments and international organizations should treat these legitimacy-seeking moves as part of a coordinated strategy to entrench military rule. Recognition or engagement without strict human rights benchmarks would reward the junta’s tactics and undermine efforts to hold it accountable.
Holding the government to account
Measures should include expanding targeted sanctions on senior military leaders, the business networks that funnel them profits and state-owned enterprises that earn revenue from natural resources such as jade, timber and rare earth minerals. Cutting off these income streams would limit the junta’s ability to finance military operations and sustain its hold on power.
Diplomatic pressure should focus on securing sustained humanitarian corridors into conflict-affected areas such as Kachin, Chin, Kayah and parts of Shan, where large Christian populations are facing airstrikes, artillery fire, forced displacement and deliberate aid blockages. These corridors must allow unhindered delivery of food, medical supplies, and shelter materials to civilians.
Support for independent investigations into crimes against humanity should include funding and access for international fact-finding missions, protection for local witnesses and human rights defenders and coordinated evidence-sharing with bodies such as the UN Human Rights Council and the International Criminal Court.
Documentation of attacks, arrests, and displacement is vital for future prosecutions. Civil society groups and independent media need funding and protection to continue reporting from inside the country and in exile.
International community’s duty to the people
In other words, the international response should be built on three pillars. First, sustained political and economic pressure that denies the junta access to legitimacy and resources. Second, robust humanitarian support that reaches civilians in all affected regions without interference from the military. Third, accountability mechanisms that gather evidence, name perpetrators and lay the groundwork for justice.
The international community must protect Myanmar’s people and prevent the regime from turning staged reforms and resource deals into a shield against the consequences of its crimes.
