Christians in Bangladesh take part in a human chain for justice and security in October 2025. csi
Bangladesh will vote on February 12 in its first general elections since the 2024 uprising over corruption and authoritarian rule ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and brought an interim administration to power. As preparations intensify amid political realignment, the country’s small Christian minority, already under attack, remains uneasy about the outcome, with little confidence in either of the two main coalitions contesting the vote.
Christians are one of the three main minority communities in Bangladesh, along with Hindus and Buddhists, yet none of them has been factored into the calculations of any political party or alliance.
Christians and Buddhists each make up less than one percent of the country’s population of 170 million, which includes the world’s fourth-largest Muslim population. Hindus account for nearly eight percent, but like Christians, they are viewed as loyal to Hasina’s Awami League, a key reason why all religious minorities have come under attack.
Four possibilities
There’s no possible outcome that would put Christians or other minorities at ease, a local journalist covering the election for a mainstream newspaper told Christian Solidarity International (CSI).
While two main coalitions are contesting the election, there are four possible outcomes, two of which are more likely and seen as more acceptable by most, including minorities. These are scenarios where one of the two wins and successfully forms a government, regardless of their stance toward minority communities.
The other two outcomes are far more troubling: widespread violence disrupts the election itself, or the results are not honored, plunging the country into further uncertainty.
Islamist party attempts to broaden its appeal
One of the two alliances is led by the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami. Christians, who have faced increased violence since Hasina’s downfall, are especially wary of this coalition, which includes more than 10 smaller parties. Among them is the youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP), founded by student leaders who spearheaded the uprising and had previously claimed to stand for inclusion.
Ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, Jamaat-e-Islami advocates Islamic rule based on Sharia law and is now attempting to broaden its appeal with an anti-corruption platform. The party has nominated 276 candidates, all of them male, reflecting a trend towards marginalizing women from politics also seen among other Islamic and nationalist parties.
During Hasina’s 15-year rule, Jamaat largely remained banned, and several of its senior leaders were executed for war crimes committed during the 1971 war of independence, which saw Bangladesh break away from Pakistan. The charges included mass killings, rape and collaboration with the Pakistani military in targeting pro-independence activists and minority communities.
Hasina, now in exile in India and whose party has been barred from contesting the election, was sentenced to death in absentia in November 2025, not for her actions against Islamist extremists, but for her government’s crackdown on students during the 2024 uprising.
Jamaat’s ally, the NCP, has positioned itself as a reformist force, promoting an agenda that includes universal healthcare, judicial overhaul, and a new constitution, without clarifying how the Islamist party it has joined aligns with these goals.
Nationalist Party polling slightly ahead
A recent voter survey showed Jamaat-e-Islami at 33.6 percent, slightly behind the opposing coalition led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a center-right group headed by Tarique Rahman that promotes Bangladeshi nationalism over religious nationalism, along with economic liberalism and anti-corruption reforms, according to the local newspaper Prothom Alo. The BNP polled slightly higher, at 34.7 percent, with 17 percent of the electorate still undecided.
This means either coalition could emerge victorious.
The BNP ran the government with Jamaat-e-Islami as its ally from 2001 to 2006. During this period, they formed a four-party alliance, with Jamaat holding ministerial positions in the cabinet led by Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. There was a series of attacks on Christian and Hindu minorities during this period, the source said. Homes were looted, temples vandalized, and many people were displaced.
Many incidents of violence during this period were not investigated or prosecuted adequately. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and local rights groups criticized the BNP government for failing to protect minority communities and bring perpetrators to justice.
The prospect of a BNP-led government offers little reassurance to Christians, although the alternative is of greater concern. The attacks that took place during BNP rule in the 2000s remain fresh in the minds of minority communities, the source said.
Fears of violence and instability
If the elections are derailed by violence, a fear shared by many in the country, no one stands to benefit from the resulting instability, least of all the minorities, the source added.
The interim government’s ability to control mob violence, prevent attacks on minorities, and hold perpetrators accountable is widely questioned, the source explained.
In the capital Dhaka and across minority-dominated areas, Christian and Hindu communities have expressed growing unease over the election climate, citing a sharp rise in intimidation and political violence.
Bangladesh’s Christian community has historically faced discrimination and sporadic violence, but attacks increased after the uprising.
Churches in Dhaka have been targeted with crude bombs, including recent attacks on St. Mary’s Cathedral and Holy Rosary Church. Prestigious Catholic schools such as Notre Dame College and Holy Cross College have received anonymous threats accusing them of carrying out conversions.
On January 7, 28-year-old Samir Das, a Hindu auto-rickshaw driver, was stabbed to death in Chittagong, prompting fresh appeals for polling-day security.
Leaders from the Dhakeshwari Hindu Sabha and the Hindu Christian Buddhist Unity Council have met Election Commission officials to request separate booths and stronger security deployment in vulnerable constituencies. They warned that without such guarantees, voter turnout from minority communities could collapse due to fear of targeted attacks.
Minorities seen as soft targets
The minorities have traditionally supported Hasina’s party, despite its alleged autocratic rule and corruption allegations, as they viewed the party as more secular than its rivals. Some attacks on minorities have been driven by public resentment over their support for the Awami League, others by Islamist groups, and many simply because minorities have become soft targets for those who stand to gain from targeting them.
The current political vacuum has also exposed a deep rift between religious factions within the Muslim majority. Sufi Muslims, who make up over a quarter of the Muslim population, remain at odds with Salafi and Deobandi groups that reject Sufi traditions and have launched attacks on shrines and festivals. Some of these groups, including Hefazat-e-Islam, have grown more assertive since the uprising.
In this climate, maintaining the status quo would mean continued extreme vulnerability for minority communities.
Prolonged uncertainty
Many in Bangladesh think there is a possibility of the election results being disregarded. One factor fueling this fear, the source said, is the influence of self-styled Bangladeshi Islamist figures based in France and the United States, who have shown the ability to incite violence from abroad.
The source referred to a December 19 attack on the offices of Bangladesh’s two leading newspapers, The Daily Star and Prothom Alo. Multiple floors of The Daily Star building in Dhaka were burned down, and journalists fled to the roof, where they remained trapped for hours, fearing for their lives. “I can’t breathe anymore. There’s too much smoke. I’m inside. You are killing me,” investigative journalist Zyma Islam posted on Facebook around 1.00 a.m.
The assault on Prothom Alo was triggered by YouTubers operating from France and the United States, the source said. Furniture, including tables, chairs, and sofas, was hurled down, stacked into a heap, and set ablaze, each item thrown in feeding the growing flames.
The attacks followed public anger over the killing of activist Sharif Osman Hadi, which newspapers reported was exploited by certain groups to incite violence. Rumors spread that India was involved in the killing after Bangladeshi officials reportedly stated that the suspect had crossed into India following the shooting.
Law enforcement officers on alert
The lingering suspicions about the role and reach of external powers have deepened public fears that uncertainty could persist even if one coalition wins the election decisively, the source explained. Such a scenario could trigger chaos and lawlessness which, based on recent experience, may result in an especially dangerous period for minorities, who remain among the most vulnerable communities in the country, the source added.
Caretaker Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus, who returned from exile in August 2024 to lead the interim government, has said he will step down after the polls. His administration drafted a reform charter calling for expanded rights, term limits and stronger judicial checks. A referendum on the proposed reforms will be held the same day as the election.
Military units continue to patrol major cities, and law enforcement remains on alert amid fears of unrest, scenes that have only heightened the anxiety of Christians and other minority communities.
