The findings, released by a trusted contact of CSI, suggest that displacement is conditional rather than permanent, with governance conditions, not geography or ethnicity, determining whether Myanmar’s displaced see a future in their homeland.
The survey, called True Choice Myanmar, comes amid Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, driven by popular resistance following the 2021 military takeover and by conflicts that intensified after the coup. Armed ethnic movements have contested central authority for generations, holding territory along border regions and pressing demands for genuine autonomy or self-determination. The coup that overturned the second consecutive electoral victory of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s party widened this struggle into a nationwide war, drawing newly formed pro-democracy resistance groups into alliance with established ethnic forces.
The results of the survey are being shared in English for the first time through CSI’s contact, Dr. Sasa, a prominent figure in the parallel civilian administration formed by elected lawmakers and resistance groups to assert democratic legitimacy and coordinate nationwide opposition to military rule.
Over 300,000 reached in massive wartime survey
Conducting the survey required significant effort, as violence affects much of the country, with air attacks, shelling, forced displacement and blocked humanitarian relief reported across conflict areas such as Kachin, Chin, Karen, Kayah and parts of Shan, states where an estimated two million Christians live.
Independent monitoring indicates that military authorities retain control over only a limited share of national territory, about 14 percent, while United Nations estimates place a large portion of the population inside zones of active conflict. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reports that the miliary regime has killed nearly 7,800 political activists and civilians since the coup, including hundreds of children and women, and arrested more than30,000 people for political reasons, with about 22,774 people still detained.
Despite widespread international criticism of Suu Kyi’s civilian government from 2016 to 2021, particularly regarding the Rohingya crisis and failure to constrain military power, more than 95% of Myanmar’s refugee and displaced populations view a return to civilian rule as their only hope for going home, according to the survey results.
The survey suggests that the flaws of civilian governance pale in comparison to the despair people in Myanmar feel under military rule.
The United Nations estimates that 1.6 million people from Myanmar are refugees or asylum seekers, and that another 3.6 million people are displaced inside Myanmar.
One of the largest assessments of public opinion since military coup
The survey represents one of the largest independent assessments of public opinion since the 2021 military coup. It reached 150,953 people living inside Myanmar in their home states or regions, 11,649 internally displaced persons inside the country, 69,894 refugees living outside Myanmar, and 58,863 members of the Myanmar diaspora across mainly Asia, as well as Europe, North America, Australia, and the Middle East.
The contrast between attitudes toward return under different governance scenarios is stark. Among internally displaced persons inside Myanmar—people who have already lost their homes—only 6% would consider returning to their communities under continued military rule. Under civilian, federal democratic rule, that figure rises to 82%. This 76-percentage-point shift suggests that the barrier to return is the political conditions created by military control.
Broad-based rejection of military rule
Critically, rejection of military rule and support for civilian governance spans every demographic boundary. The survey recorded strong participation from Yangon, Magway, and Mandalay—regions often described as Myanmar’s central heartland—and responses from these areas closely mirror those from minority states, refugee populations, and diaspora communities. This suggests that opposition to military governance is not confined to ethnic minorities or border regions, but represents a national sentiment.
The survey also reveals that displacement itself has transformed Myanmar’s demographic landscape. Significant numbers of people identifying with central regions like Yangon, Magway, Bago, and Mandalay now live as refugees, particularly in Thailand and neighboring countries. This challenges the assumption that displacement is primarily an ethnic or peripheral phenomenon. Instead, the data indicates that insecurity, economic collapse, and political repression under military rule have driven people from across Myanmar’s geographic and ethnic spectrum to flee.
No support for military-run elections
The findings on electoral legitimacy are equally striking. Fewer than 2-3% of respondents—and in most groups, less than 1%—believe military-organized elections could be free, fair, or capable of producing legitimate governance. This includes people still living inside Myanmar under military control. In contrast, approximately 98-99% of respondents view the 2020 election, conducted under civilian government, as legitimate and fairly conducted.
Last month, the military regime concluded national elections which were widely viewed as a sham, and which delivered the ruling party a crushing landslide victory.
For advocacy organizations working with Myanmar’s persecuted communities, these findings provide crucial evidence that the displaced retain a desire to return to their homeland and home regions. The survey documents a population that envisions return, but only when political conditions make it safe and dignified.
Researchers, policymakers or journalists wishing to view a full copy of the report are invited to contact Dr. Sasa at [email protected].
CSI is working in Myanmar to provide emergency aid to displaced people, including cash grants to purchase food or open new businesses.
